President Biden’s reelection campaign took the gloves off on Monday, with an attack ad slamming former President Donald Trump as a “convicted felon.”
The ad is Biden’s most direct swipe yet at his Republican opponent, and a clear shift in tactics ahead of the pivotal debate next week.
Over a montage of Trump’s Georgia mugshot and snapshots of the former president in court, the ad opens with, “In the courtroom, we see Donald Trump for who he is. He’s been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault and he committed financial fraud.”
The narrator then switches to describing Biden as a president who has “been working – lowering healthcare costs and making corporations pay their fair share.”
That said, will Biden’s new strategy work to narrow Trump’s lead in all or most of the swing states that will actually decide the election?
Unfortunately for the president, it is more likely that this represents a significant missed opportunity, as the ad is considerably off the mark.
While attacking Trump for his felony convictions – which voters are aware of – the ad says nothing about the issues which voters, specifically Independents, actually care about, such as the economy, and which will decide the election.
A recent Fox News poll makes this clear. While pointing out that Biden now leads Trump (50% to 48%) for the first time since October 2023, the survey linked Biden’s improving numbers with the highest levels of positive economic sentiment in Biden’s term.
Indeed, there has been 9-point increase in voters saying their personal economic situation has improved over the last year, and critically, among Independents, Biden now leads by 9-points, an 11-point increase since May.
Those swings are critical if Biden wants a second term, especially when the same poll shows virtually no movement in Trump’s own standing due to his felony convictions.
Taken together, it is clear that Biden’s numbers are intrinsically linked to how Americans feel about the economy, not Trump’s personal character or legal issues.
And yet, the Biden campaign’s signature ad – part of a $50 million ad buy for June alone – makes no mention of the president’s plans to tackle inflation or strengthen the economy.
Moreover, Biden missed a chance to contrast his economic policies with Trump’s, including the ways his policies would help Americans more than the former president’s.
The Fox News poll is not a one off. Surveys have repeatedly shown that Trump’s convictions will ultimately matter little compared to issues such as the economy, which remains the biggest obstacle for Biden.
The president’s approval on the issue is a dismal 38% according to a recent Yahoo News survey. And, by nearly a 3-to-1 margin (42% to 16%), voters think their financial situation would be better under Trump according to a separate poll conducted by CBS News.
As such, Trump has maintained his lead in swing states, giving him inside track to the presidency.
The most recent Emerson College swing state polling, completed just this week, shows Trump leading Biden in six of the seven swing states, with the two tied in Minnesota, the same state where nearly 20% of Democrats backed the protest vote against Biden in the March primary.
To be sure, this full-on attack should be seen for what it is: an effort by the Biden campaign to reframe the election not as a referendum on his job performance – which sits at just 37% per YouGov polling – but rather as a choice between the character of the two candidates.
However, even viewed that light, this new ad has the potential to backfire on Biden in potentially unforeseen ways.
By publicly categorizing Trump as a “convicted felon,” Biden opened himself up to possible attacks by Trump on Biden’s son Hunter, himself recently convicted of multiple felonies related to lying about his drug use in order to purchase a gun.
Quite simply, the problem with this ad is that there are many genuine kitchen-table issues that matter much more to voters than Trump’s conviction in a case that many struggle to understand.
Yet, instead of focusing on what Biden has done and will do to address those issues – the economy, inflation, immigration, and even abortion – the Biden campaign is spending time and money telling voters something they already know, and don’t prioritize.
Even Democrats are uneasy about this strategy. As Politico reported, some top strategists like David Axelrod disagree with using Trump’s convictions as a political weapon, instead preferring that Biden speak to what people are actually concerned about.
As Axelrod described his beliefs, “the most important thing he (Biden) can do is connect his work to people’s lives” by showing Biden working to address voters’ concerns versus a president obsessed with his own personal vendettas, avoiding the legal issues.
To be clear, this is not to say that some voters may be uneasy at the thought of electing a felon to the presidency. Rather, it is to say that it pales in comparison to other issues.
Ultimately, for a president who has long struggled to communicate with voters, the heart of Biden’s messaging strategy should be what his plans are for the next four years and why his solutions to the challenges facing this country are better than Donald Trump’s.
Put another way, the smart move for Biden would be making voters feel better about the issues that genuinely matter, and contrasting his policies with Trump’s, not angrily attacking the former president for something that matters little to voters now, and will matter less by the time Americans go to the ballot box.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
